Predictions from Oscarwatch. 8 Nominations for BBM
January 30, 2006
OW's Final Oscar Nomination Predictions
[by Sasha Stone
It has been a wild and crazy year. The big films everyone thought would go from the beginning of the year onward were mostly DOA, although the girl from a trailer park with a dream has not yet thanked her best friend and publicist - in other words, it ain't over til it's over.
A surprising slate took over, one that matched with the critics pretty closely and one that seemed to not consider Oscar ads or box office. And thus, we end up with five films that have continued strongly. Two of them got their start at Toronto - Brokeback Mountain and Walk the Line. Two got a big boost from Venice - Brokeback Mountain and Good Night, and Good Luck. Capote was among the best reviewed films of the year and turned up on top ten lists in the number one slot again and again. And Crash was an early-starter whose "little engine that could" snowballed into a frontrunner.
As of now, Good Night and Good Luck is the only film that has been nominated by the Globe and mostly all of the guilds. Last year that film was The Aviator. Good Night should be among the highest nominated films come tomorrow morning. But having so many noms doesn't guarantee a win, of course. It is still Brokeback's to lose.
Predicts after the jump
There are a few films that could still upset the five. The Constant Gardener is the one many are projecting to show up, despite its lack of nods elsewhere. If it is nominated, it will be among a very select few of contenders to make it to the big show without a DGA nod and scant few other guild noms. It has a Globe, a WGA nod and an ADG nod. Two films in recent memory that managed that feat were In the Bedroom (which had a Globe and a SAG ensemble)and Babe (which only had a Globe and a WGA nod).
So enough love will get any movie there and if there's anything Gardener inspires, it's love. But which film to dump? They're all very strong. And it's more often than not the DGA predicts the best pic slate. Of the stragglers, the Constant Gardener looks the strongest to upset, followed by dark horse Pride & Prejudice. But the only two films that seem likely to be replaced are Capote and Crash. Crash is strong with actors, obviously, and Capote seems to be everyone else's favorite (even some talk show host on LA radio). Walk the Line missed out on a DGA nod but it seems to be quite popular nonetheless - and is still the only major studio movie in strong contention.
Capote has very strong support, not only winning the Scripter but also being included in the major noms: DGA/PGA/SAG and also got a costume nom. It's extremely rare to get the trilogy and not be nominated. Being John Malkovich was one - but then again, neither the SAG ensemble nor the PGA have been around long enough to draw those conclusions. Generally speaking, though, the more guild support the better.
So what of Munich? Ah Munich. The one film that will debunk Oscar predicting on the web before the film is seen. Cold Mountain and Road to Perdition were two films that looked a lot like Munich out of the gate, particularly the latter. Memoirs of a Geisha was a film we dubbed the "one Oscar movie to rule them all" and look how that turned out. This year settles the debate as to whether or not you have to see the film before predicting it.
Onward to predictions. Keep in mind that nobody knows anything and just because a person gets the nods exactly right doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme of things - just that you know how the Academy thinks.
Best Picture
1. Brokeback Mountain (still the one to beat)
2. Good Night, and Good Luck
3. Crash
4. Capote
5. Walk the Line
Alternate - The Constant Gardener
This is a tough year to predict - usually it's much easier and it's only the last two slots. Will Walk the Line make it despite its lack of a DGA nod? Will Munich squeeze in after all? It's enough to drive one to drink.
Best Director
1. Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain (for the win, baby)
2. George Clooney, Good Night and Good Luck
3. Paul Haggis, Crash
4. Bennett Miller, Capote
5. Steven Spielberg, Munich
Possible Upsets: Fernando Meirelles, The Constant Gardener; David Cronenberg, History of Violence
Best Actor
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote(unstoppable)
2. Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
3. Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
4. David Strathairn, Good Night and Good Luck
5. Terence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Russell Crowe is the one most have in the fifth slot - I'm not so sure...SAG always misses one or two picks - have a weird feeling Ralph Fiennes is going to get in also.
Best Actress:
1. Reese Witherspoon
2. Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
3. Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
4. Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
5. Charlize Theron, North Country
Ziyi Zhang is the one that most are saying will get in.
Supporting Actor:
1. George Clooney, Syriana
2. Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
3. Matt Dillon, Crash
4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
5. Bob Hoskins - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Don Cheadle could make it in here, as could Terence Howard or any of the other Crash actors - and there are some wild card possibilities, like Danny Huston for Gardener (he was pretty great and Hollywood royalty). Am also thinking Donald Sutherland has a good shot as a surprise nominee. In the end, I'm a coward, though and don't have the guts to go out on a limb. But something tells me there will be a shocker or two somewhere.
Supporting Actress:
1. Rachel Weisz, Constant Gardener
2. Michelle Williams, BBM
3. Catherine Keener, Capote
4. Amy Adams - Junebug
5. Maria Bello, A History of Violence
There Frances McDormand for North Country who will probably be named as well. Tough category, this.
Original Screenplay:
1. Crash
2. Good Night, and Good Luck
3. The Squid and the Whale
4. Cinderella Man
5. Syriana
Adapted:
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Capote
3. The Constant Gardener
4. A History of Violence
5. Munich
What the hell - Munich could still nail it in a few places.
Animated Feature:
Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
The Corpse Bride
Howl's Moving Castle
Alt. Chicken Little
Animated Short
Fan and the Flower
Milch
Moongirl
The Moon and the Sun
Foreign Language Film
Tsotsi
Joyeux Noel
Paradise Now
The Promise
Documentary Feature
March of the Penguins
Murderball
Favela Rising
Mad, Hot Ballroom
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
Art Direction
Memoirs of a Geisha
Good Night and Good Luck
Chronicles of Narnia
Munich
King Kong
Visual F/X
Chronicles of Narnia
King Kong
Harry Potter: Goblet of Fire
Costumes
Chronicles of Narnia
Memoirs of a Geisha
Capote
Pride and Prejudice
Good Night, and Good Luck
Makeup
The Chronicles of Narnia
The Libertine
The New World
Editing
Crash
Munich
The Constant Gardener
Good Night, and Good Luck
Capote
Alt. Walk the Line
Cinematography
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Memoirs of a Geisha
The Constant Gardener
Capote
Sound Mixing
Walk the Line
Memoirs of a Geisha
War of the Worlds
Batman Begins
King Kong
Sound Editing
King Kong
War of the Worlds
Original Score
John Williams, Memoirs of a Geisha
Gustavo Santaollala, Brokeback Mountain
Henry Gregson-Williams, Chronicles of Narnia
John Williams, Munich
Thomas Newman, Cinderella Man
Song
Hustle and Flow, Terence Howard, Hustle and Flow
Travelin' Thru, Dolly Parton, Transamerica
There's Nothing Like a Show on Broadway, Mel Brooks, The Producers
And there you have it, the lamest Oscar predictions on record. So, I will be preparing to eat lots of crow and admitting how wrong I really was.
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